AtlasIntel

Andrei Roman and Thiago Costa launched AtlasIntel in 2014 with a simple goal: fix the broken math behind political forecasting. Based in São Paulo, the firm grew from a local Brazilian operation into a global player that now tracks elections across four continents. They do not chase volume like Gallup or Pew Research Center. Instead they focus on high-stakes predictions where a single percentage point matters.

Their reputation in the United States rests on a track record of calling winners in three consecutive presidential elections. While larger firms rely on traditional phone surveys, AtlasIntel built its own digital infrastructure to reach voters who ignore landlines. This proprietary approach allows them to publish daily updates on shifting public sentiment without waiting weeks for results.

By late 2026 the company had firmly established itself as a go-to source for midterms data. Their recent polls showed Democrats holding a 14-point lead over Trump's party in the generic congressional ballot. Analysts cite their work on battleground states like Michigan and North Carolina because the numbers consistently match actual election outcomes. [edit]