Doomberg's Six Mental Models Fall 2025
by Freddenver: Doomberg
The Western democratic order faces a genuine breakdown once you start arresting former presidents because leaders won't hand over power if they risk being locked up by the opposing side. That shift where the US began arresting ex-presidents mirrors what happened with Balssono going to jail in Brazil and Le Pen ending up in prison in France. For a long time this wasn't the case, but the last phase saw the US change tactics and that mental model explains why opponents fear losing elections so deeply. We openly speculated on how these trends would play out during the midterm election in the US, warning that arresting your political rivals invites chaos like what is happening in Brazil. Back when we presented Doomberg's Six Mental Models in Fall 2025, we did a deep dive into scenarios exactly like those in Brazil for each of the six points, analyzing what it might mean for stability. It turns out not everything from that specific presentation panned out as predicted, but the core argument about the dangers of judicial targeting remains valid for understanding current political instability. #Doomberg #Brazil
Transcript (en)
for a long time. And then the last one, apropos for today, the U.S. has started arresting former presidents. So, and we, in that elaboration of that mental model, we had Bolsonaro going to jail in Brazil and Le Pen going to jail in France. And this breakdown in the Western democratic order, once you arrest a former president, presidents don't want to leave because they risk being arrested if they hand over power to the other side. And so we openly speculated that, and we'll see how this midterm election goes in the U S but you know, once you start arresting your opponents, then you have things like, you know, what's, what's happening in Brazil, um, hit you. So, um, and then for each of those six, we did a deep dive on what it might mean. And, you know, not everything in that presentation panned out, but a lot of it did. So, um, you're asking about China's crude oil. Yeah. I mean, like just, just on those six headlines, I mean, it's very, very impressive that those were pretty much absolutely massive long shots all basically played out to be true. Which is kind of crazy to be honest. I mean, it's just a testament to your ability to think laterally.
