Transcript (en)

This is the worst year of trading I've had this entire decade. Really? Of the decade? Of like the 2020s, yeah. Why do you think and what has gone wrong? I've talked about this. I made a pretty long post about it. Essentially, I think the COVID market was just so easy and so telegraphed. Like, you know, we had ZERP and we had like all this super accommodative and stimulative fiscal and monetary policy and stuff. So it's just obvious we were going to go inside, go up while we were all locked inside, just gambling. And then heading into the end of 2021, they kind of just reversed all the stances of what happened. So then that became a really easy on the short side, which is when I actually started tweeting. And then coming out of 2022 is easy to be bearish just because of how fucking disgusting everything was, like as far as the extent of the downturns and then the FTX collapse and stuff. After that, it got a lot more nuanced. And I even tweeted in like 2023 or 2024. I just think it's going to be a lot harder for me to time sort of these market cycle tops and bottoms as effectively as I did the last, you know, three, four years. And that kind of played out where I sort of sold a lot of stuff and talked about how I was getting bearish fall of last year after the whole pump and Tesla trade stuff. And then even though equities indices didn't really decline too much, they like, you know, went sideways a lot. And it became much more of a stock pickers market, whereas like I don't think I'm super good at like picking individual. Like I'm not going to hit a sand disc and hit it for a 10x and, you know, change my portfolio too much. I generally do better at timing like macro swings as far as tops and bottoms and bull markets and bear markets. So there was a lot of like sector rotation that was going on in equities indices that I didn't really take advantage of too well.