Puru Saksena on AI IPO hype
Puru Saksena (saxena_puru) had data showing Facebook, Uber and Snowflake each slid hard once they hit their IPO peak, averaging a 55% drop across that first year. We dug into it back in June, just days after Anthropic filed. The thing people miss: employees and early investors can hold for years on wealth that is purely on paper. Then the listing happens, and the new buyer's entry point is exactly where those insiders get their exit.
Transcript (en)
Next piece I had here was this guy, Puru Saxena, giving a little bit of an IPO hype warning. He shared some data on major tech IPOs like Facebook, Uber, Snowflake, showing the big first year drops that they had with an average year one drawdown of 55% and the median one-year drawdown of 54% after the IPO highs. He's warning investors against buying overhyped new listings at launch. I also think most of retail investors don't understand how many people have been involved before that, right? And like how much money that they need to accumulate. Now it's essentially oftentimes like dumping on you to get that. You've got companies that have spent 10 plus years, whatever, in private markets where you've got employees, founders, investors who have not had any way to necessarily get liquidity for their investment. So they've got a company who's raised money over and over again, or who's increased their revenues even over and over again throughout all this time. But the value that they have held up in this company is all on paper, right? So even if the value of your company has gone from a $1 million company to a $100 million company, I don't actually see anything from that. It's changed your life in no material way, right? Not until they go public. And then when it goes public, well, what am I going to do? Well, I'm out of here. I'm getting my values that I just contributed to this company for a decade of my life. Your entry point is obviously their exit. Quite literally, folks. If you enjoyed this, be sure to hit that like button and follow to stay up to date with what's going on in the world and everything else memes and markets. Peace.
