JG Nuke on Caterpillar and AI trade
by Freddenver: Anthropic
The price of diesel won't stop climbing and it's hitting record highs every single day, which makes the whole situation look pretty grim. JG Nuke thinks the Anthropic S-1 will be the biggest event of this fall, assuming it drops in November, but before getting into that, it feels like everyone is treating this entire market movement as a single unified trade. The perfect example to show how everything connects is Caterpillar, which has had a fantastic run with stock up roughly 300% since the start of the decade. It isn't because they are selling more escalators or construction equipment; the real reason for the growth is that they are selling diesel generators to AI centers. With diesel costs rising daily, all these pieces fit together into one massive trade that honestly doesn't look so hot right now.
Transcript (en)
The Anthropic S1 will be the most important event of this fall. Let's assume it happens in November. And before we get into the Anthropic S1, it's funny you mentioned that it's all one trade now. And you mentioned diesel before because the perfect example I always hold up about how this is all one trade is Caterpillar. Caterpillar has had a fantastic run these last few years. It's up like 300% since the start of the decade. And the reason Caterpillar is up so much is because of AI. It's not because they're selling a lot of excavators or a lot of combine or anything like that. No, they're selling diesel generators to data centers. And we just got done talking about how the price of diesel won't stop going up and it's making record highs every day. And, you know, these are data centers that are already not profitable. And they spent the last few years installing generators, the fuel of which is now in a global shortage. So, yeah, it's all one trade. And that trade doesn't look so hot here, even though forget what the nominal levels of the stocks are. Look at the prospects for the business, and they're just dreadful. And that takes us to the S1.
