Transcript (en)

This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far. Based in Paris, Nicolas Weiman's small data analytics firm Bubble Maps creates visualizations of bets on Polymarket to spot bubbles, or clusters, of suspect traders. One paradox of Polymarket, everything about the trades is totally transparent and public, except the traders themselves remain anonymous. This big cluster in the middle, no one talked about it. The firm's head of investigations goes by his online handle, Deebs. He asked us to obscure his identity over fears of retaliation for his detective work. They shared for the first time what they believe is a more egregious insider trading case than Gannon Ken Van Dyke's. We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made collectively $2.4 million, betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations. Svanberg made 400,000. Here, 2.4 million. And now, here's the crazy part. 98% win rate. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. 98. 98. This is like winning the lottery multiple times, you know? The linked accounts made dozens of winning bets on the specific dates of pivotal moments in the war with Iran, even when the odds were low. The first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, the announcement of a ceasefire. How do we know this isn't just someone who has really good instincts? Luck alone cannot explain those numbers. If you know this, why don't federal prosecutors? Well, hopefully with your interview, they're going to know this.