Jolyon@jolyon

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Andrew Day on Iran blockade plan

Andrew Day of The American Conservative doesn't buy the blockade-and-sanctions package pitched to Trump as a "middle path." His reasoning: it's designed to ratchet up pressure on Iran week by week, and at some point Tehran pushes back instead of absorbing it. The math he cites is stark. Iran holds around 1,700 ballistic missiles and turns out about 50 fresh ones every month, a monthly clip that outpaces the US's yearly output of Patriot interceptors. Over on Liberty Lockdown, Clint Russell's position is that there's no tidy way out anymore. Iran is obliged to answer any strike, and Israel keeps the option of kicking off hostilities again. The conversation also touches whether a single large strike would give Washington room to step back, plus what Democrats intend to do with their new majority. The bottom line from the discussion: the longer the pressure campaign runs without a deal, the higher the chance that Iran or Israel sets off the next round, and American interceptor stocks aren't keeping up with the threat.

2d

Jolyon@jolyon

Follow

Andrew Day on Iran blockade plan

Andrew Day of The American Conservative doesn't buy the blockade-and-sanctions package pitched to Trump as a "middle path." His reasoning: it's designed to ratchet up pressure on Iran week by week, and at some point Tehran pushes back instead of absorbing it. The math he cites is stark. Iran holds around 1,700 ballistic missiles and turns out about 50 fresh ones every month, a monthly clip that outpaces the US's yearly output of Patriot interceptors. Over on Liberty Lockdown, Clint Russell's position is that there's no tidy way out anymore. Iran is obliged to answer any strike, and Israel keeps the option of kicking off hostilities again. The conversation also touches whether a single large strike would give Washington room to step back, plus what Democrats intend to do with their new majority. The bottom line from the discussion: the longer the pressure campaign runs without a deal, the higher the chance that Iran or Israel sets off the next round, and American interceptor stocks aren't keeping up with the threat.

2d