Jolyon@jolyon

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Abdul El-Sayed Polymarket polling data

The Haley Stevens endorsement regarding Abdul El-Sayed was initially framed by observers as potentially damaging, yet the outcome suggests the October/November Surprise backfired against those expecting harm. Polymarket markets reacted at first with a price spike for Mike Rogers and narrowed margins, but that initial market reaction spike was eliminated once El-Sayed's probability of winning rebounded to 80%. The endorsement triggered a unified response from Democrats who felt betrayed, resulting in condemnation of Stevens and support for El-Sayed. This galvanization led to fundraising where El-Sayed raised $2.4 million in a single day, an amount that exceeded the campaign's previous single-day record. During this period, 29,602 first-time donors contributed, proving that sometimes these surprises work against the intended target rather than for it.

1h

Jolyon@jolyon

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Abdul El-Sayed Polymarket polling data

The Haley Stevens endorsement regarding Abdul El-Sayed was initially framed by observers as potentially damaging, yet the outcome suggests the October/November Surprise backfired against those expecting harm. Polymarket markets reacted at first with a price spike for Mike Rogers and narrowed margins, but that initial market reaction spike was eliminated once El-Sayed's probability of winning rebounded to 80%. The endorsement triggered a unified response from Democrats who felt betrayed, resulting in condemnation of Stevens and support for El-Sayed. This galvanization led to fundraising where El-Sayed raised $2.4 million in a single day, an amount that exceeded the campaign's previous single-day record. During this period, 29,602 first-time donors contributed, proving that sometimes these surprises work against the intended target rather than for it.

1h