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Ben-Ephraim on Iran, Turkey and Netanyahu

The part of Brandon J. Weichert's conversation with Shaiel Ben-Ephraim that stays with you is the incentive question. Ben-Ephraim, a former officer in Israel's Unit 8200, keeps returning to whether the country's leadership has any political reason to wind these confrontations down, and his answer is bleak: Netanyahu may gain more from a permanent war footing than from a lasting peace. Everything else flows from that. He predicts a U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran is close to certain once the November 3 midterms are behind us, but he doesn't treat Washington and Netanyahu as sharing a goal. Trump, in his reading, may want something quick and limited. Netanyahu wants a far bigger campaign aimed at regime change, and Ben-Ephraim argues it would also shore up his hand in the coalition negotiations he's in the middle of. Iran may not be the last stop. Israeli political and military circles, per Ben-Ephraim, are treating Turkey as the next major strategic rival, especially in Syria. Turkey is a NATO member with a serious military, and he thinks some Israeli hardliners would not mind a drawn-out confrontation, even one that starts through proxies rather than direct fighting. The interview also touched on Tel Aviv, where a demonstrator backing Netanyahu brought Nazi death camps into an attack on left-wing Israeli protesters. Ben-Ephraim reads that as a sign of something troubling deeper down. His argument is that the real internal fault line isn't Palestine at all. It's religion, military service, and the resentment building on the secular side toward the ultra-Orthodox. Longer term, what worries him is who leaves. The educated, economically productive people who underwrite the country's military and tech edge are increasingly going elsewhere.

2h

Jolyon@jolyon

Follow

Ben-Ephraim on Iran, Turkey and Netanyahu

The part of Brandon J. Weichert's conversation with Shaiel Ben-Ephraim that stays with you is the incentive question. Ben-Ephraim, a former officer in Israel's Unit 8200, keeps returning to whether the country's leadership has any political reason to wind these confrontations down, and his answer is bleak: Netanyahu may gain more from a permanent war footing than from a lasting peace. Everything else flows from that. He predicts a U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran is close to certain once the November 3 midterms are behind us, but he doesn't treat Washington and Netanyahu as sharing a goal. Trump, in his reading, may want something quick and limited. Netanyahu wants a far bigger campaign aimed at regime change, and Ben-Ephraim argues it would also shore up his hand in the coalition negotiations he's in the middle of. Iran may not be the last stop. Israeli political and military circles, per Ben-Ephraim, are treating Turkey as the next major strategic rival, especially in Syria. Turkey is a NATO member with a serious military, and he thinks some Israeli hardliners would not mind a drawn-out confrontation, even one that starts through proxies rather than direct fighting. The interview also touched on Tel Aviv, where a demonstrator backing Netanyahu brought Nazi death camps into an attack on left-wing Israeli protesters. Ben-Ephraim reads that as a sign of something troubling deeper down. His argument is that the real internal fault line isn't Palestine at all. It's religion, military service, and the resentment building on the secular side toward the ultra-Orthodox. Longer term, what worries him is who leaves. The educated, economically productive people who underwrite the country's military and tech edge are increasingly going elsewhere.

2h