Not A Charm@not_a_charm

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Tom Bevan on Republican Senate losses

Bevan's Senate range for Republicans is the part worth sitting with: somewhere between one seat gone and seven, and he flat out says the seven scenario would've been unthinkable six months back. "If the bottom falls out, it could be seven seats, which was unthinkable like six months ago." That's the RealClearPolitics co-founder talking, and everything else he's watching matches it. Democrats are up 8.3 on the generic ballot and nothing is tightening late. Trump's approval reads 38.6% and hasn't cleared 40% since July. Gas sits around $4.25 a gallon. The polling average that nailed 2018 is pointing at a repeat three days out. What Republicans still have is registration math in Texas, Kansas, Ohio and Iowa, where they vastly outnumber Democrats and those folks tend to show up on Election Day, so Trump is doing red state rallies telling people to treat him like he isn't on the ticket. The whole thing hinges on turnout from people fed up over gas prices and the Iran war. Whoever sits it out is handing over the Senate

2h

Not A Charm@not_a_charm

Follow

Tom Bevan on Republican Senate losses

Bevan's Senate range for Republicans is the part worth sitting with: somewhere between one seat gone and seven, and he flat out says the seven scenario would've been unthinkable six months back. "If the bottom falls out, it could be seven seats, which was unthinkable like six months ago." That's the RealClearPolitics co-founder talking, and everything else he's watching matches it. Democrats are up 8.3 on the generic ballot and nothing is tightening late. Trump's approval reads 38.6% and hasn't cleared 40% since July. Gas sits around $4.25 a gallon. The polling average that nailed 2018 is pointing at a repeat three days out. What Republicans still have is registration math in Texas, Kansas, Ohio and Iowa, where they vastly outnumber Democrats and those folks tend to show up on Election Day, so Trump is doing red state rallies telling people to treat him like he isn't on the ticket. The whole thing hinges on turnout from people fed up over gas prices and the Iran war. Whoever sits it out is handing over the Senate

2h