Gloriaunhinged@gloriaunhinged

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Prediction markets and primary elections

The thing I keep coming back to about prediction markets is that they measure uncertainty, not destiny. A 75% chance on a candidate doesn't lock in a win, it just means that in about 75 of 100 comparable cases, that's how it shakes out. Which is why the Washington Post analysis caught my eye: looking across primary elections, candidates ended up winning about as often as the markets said they would. That's the actual value here. Not nailing every single call, but getting the odds honest.

2h

Gloriaunhinged@gloriaunhinged

Follow

Prediction markets and primary elections

The thing I keep coming back to about prediction markets is that they measure uncertainty, not destiny. A 75% chance on a candidate doesn't lock in a win, it just means that in about 75 of 100 comparable cases, that's how it shakes out. Which is why the Washington Post analysis caught my eye: looking across primary elections, candidates ended up winning about as often as the markets said they would. That's the actual value here. Not nailing every single call, but getting the odds honest.

2h