Jolyon@jolyon

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Abdullah Alaoudh on Saudi Arabia and the Houthis

The longer this runs, the less anyone can picture a clean way out. Abdullah Alaoudh's read on Saudi Arabia is that the country is being pulled further into a fight it has no path to winning, and when I asked him about the Houthi strikes landing on Saudi territory, his view of Mohammed bin Salman came out harsh. MBS, in his assessment, is clear the Houthis can't be erased by force, but talks aren't where the effort is going. The military push is being expanded instead, with the idea of degrading the Houthis enough to hold a stronger hand down the line. So Riyadh has gone looking to the UAE. Emirati-backed forces in southern Yemen, per Abdullah, offer the ground fighting capacity the Saudis need, while Abu Dhabi may be after political concessions on what southern Yemen looks like later. The bit that stuck with me concerned ordinary Saudis. Warnings about missiles, damage to infrastructure, the feeling that another strike could come at any point: he describes a population growing more afraid and more fed up. Voicing opposition isn't simple there either, given that openly defying the leadership can bring serious punishment. His conclusion is that victory isn't realistically on the table, and as the fighting goes on, imagining a painless exit gets harder rather than easier.

2h

Jolyon@jolyon

Follow

Abdullah Alaoudh on Saudi Arabia and the Houthis

The longer this runs, the less anyone can picture a clean way out. Abdullah Alaoudh's read on Saudi Arabia is that the country is being pulled further into a fight it has no path to winning, and when I asked him about the Houthi strikes landing on Saudi territory, his view of Mohammed bin Salman came out harsh. MBS, in his assessment, is clear the Houthis can't be erased by force, but talks aren't where the effort is going. The military push is being expanded instead, with the idea of degrading the Houthis enough to hold a stronger hand down the line. So Riyadh has gone looking to the UAE. Emirati-backed forces in southern Yemen, per Abdullah, offer the ground fighting capacity the Saudis need, while Abu Dhabi may be after political concessions on what southern Yemen looks like later. The bit that stuck with me concerned ordinary Saudis. Warnings about missiles, damage to infrastructure, the feeling that another strike could come at any point: he describes a population growing more afraid and more fed up. Voicing opposition isn't simple there either, given that openly defying the leadership can bring serious punishment. His conclusion is that victory isn't realistically on the table, and as the fighting goes on, imagining a painless exit gets harder rather than easier.

2h