Jolyon@jolyon

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Riyadh airport strike and the MBS dilemma

Mohammed bin Salman now has a genuine problem on his hands, and the Houthis may be the ones who handed it to him. Reports out of Riyadh say a missile hit King Khalid International Airport, and the early estimates, still unconfirmed, point to several people killed and dozens more wounded. On paper this looks like a win for the Houthis. They've already shown they can reach Saudi airports, oil facilities and other critical infrastructure, so the capability isn't in question. What is in question is whether hitting a civilian terminal was smart. Because it might do for Riyadh what Riyadh hasn't managed to do for itself: pull the Saudi public and the kingdom's regional partners toward a bigger fight in Yemen. That's why a Saudi ground offensive is looking more probable now. Whether it would actually work is a separate matter, and there are fair doubts about that. So the crown prince is stuck. Come back soft and Saudi Arabia reads as exposed. Go in hard and the country sinks further into a war it hasn't been able to win. The Houthis may have given Riyadh every justification to escalate, and no obvious route to come out ahead.

1h

Jolyon@jolyon

Follow

Riyadh airport strike and the MBS dilemma

Mohammed bin Salman now has a genuine problem on his hands, and the Houthis may be the ones who handed it to him. Reports out of Riyadh say a missile hit King Khalid International Airport, and the early estimates, still unconfirmed, point to several people killed and dozens more wounded. On paper this looks like a win for the Houthis. They've already shown they can reach Saudi airports, oil facilities and other critical infrastructure, so the capability isn't in question. What is in question is whether hitting a civilian terminal was smart. Because it might do for Riyadh what Riyadh hasn't managed to do for itself: pull the Saudi public and the kingdom's regional partners toward a bigger fight in Yemen. That's why a Saudi ground offensive is looking more probable now. Whether it would actually work is a separate matter, and there are fair doubts about that. So the crown prince is stuck. Come back soft and Saudi Arabia reads as exposed. Go in hard and the country sinks further into a war it hasn't been able to win. The Houthis may have given Riyadh every justification to escalate, and no obvious route to come out ahead.

1h