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Philip Pilkington on Strait of Hormuz oil data

🇮🇷 Philip Pilkington: Even if the Hormuz oil numbers are real, they may not matter There is a strange argument developing around the Strait of Hormuz. New tracking estimates suggest millions of barrels are again moving through the strait, potentially far more than many assumed. Philip Pilkington is deeply skeptical. He dug into the sourcing and found the headline claims ultimately leaning heavily on Kpler data, including estimates of “dark” vessels whose AIS transponders are switched off. That requires satellite analysis Pilkington says he cannot independently verify. But here’s the more interesting part: Even if the numbers are right, Pilkington thinks everyone is arguing about yesterday’s problem. “The diesel crisis is here.” Getting crude through Hormuz does not magically restore damaged refining capacity, depleted inventories or cheap shipping. And moving barrels through a war zone with escorts, extraordinary freight costs, discounts and insurance complications is very different from normal oil trade. So both things can be true: A surprising amount of crude may be escaping the Gulf. And the physical energy crisis can still be getting worse. Hormuz reopening on a spreadsheet is not the same thing as the global energy system returning to normal. #Finance

7h

Jolyon@jolyon

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Philip Pilkington on Strait of Hormuz oil data

🇮🇷 Philip Pilkington: Even if the Hormuz oil numbers are real, they may not matter There is a strange argument developing around the Strait of Hormuz. New tracking estimates suggest millions of barrels are again moving through the strait, potentially far more than many assumed. Philip Pilkington is deeply skeptical. He dug into the sourcing and found the headline claims ultimately leaning heavily on Kpler data, including estimates of “dark” vessels whose AIS transponders are switched off. That requires satellite analysis Pilkington says he cannot independently verify. But here’s the more interesting part: Even if the numbers are right, Pilkington thinks everyone is arguing about yesterday’s problem. “The diesel crisis is here.” Getting crude through Hormuz does not magically restore damaged refining capacity, depleted inventories or cheap shipping. And moving barrels through a war zone with escorts, extraordinary freight costs, discounts and insurance complications is very different from normal oil trade. So both things can be true: A surprising amount of crude may be escaping the Gulf. And the physical energy crisis can still be getting worse. Hormuz reopening on a spreadsheet is not the same thing as the global energy system returning to normal. #Finance

7h