Not A Newt@not_a_newt

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Trump chess match against blue sweaters

whether the chaos surrounding Iran was engineered on purpose is something i genuinely can't answer, but the scoreboard after the fact is hard to argue with: the US comes out ahead and BRICS takes the hit, and that lines up with Trump's interests either way. start with the Beijing agreement. China put its name on a deal between Iran and the Saudis meant to "promote international and regional peace and security," and for a while the Saudis were on good terms with basically everybody and printing money. that deal is gone. Iran and the Saudis are back to being enemies. then there's the membership question. Saudi Arabia got an invite to BRICS and even shows up in the concept note as a member, but they never confirmed it publicly, which happened because of US pressure. so the Saudis sit there as a "disputed member" where nobody can say for sure if they're in or out. once the war in Iran kicked off, Iran, itself a BRICS member, was in direct conflict with the Saudis, and most BRICS members sided with Iran. that basically torches any warm feelings inside the bloc for the time being. the Saudis got shoved back into the US ally column instead of staying a state that deals with everyone on its own terms. as for oil, the short supply and the chaos aren't costing the US much, particularly now that it controls Venezuela's oil. if anything the opposite: the supply chain runs through the US while everyone else eats the damage. corporations bank massive profits and global trading routes get redrawn. the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and of Saudi oil exports means less oil reaches China, since its main suppliers apart from Russia were Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and those are cut off. the US, as an oil producer plus Venezuela, only gains from shortages. sure, the regular person feels it at the pump, but geopolitics doesn't care about him. Chevron collects and China suffers, which is exactly what neocons want. China and India have to lean harder on Russian imports as the only partner they can count on, which means if Russia goes down, China is left with no oil partners at all. China is furious at everyone involved and watches a decade of diplomatic work come apart. it wanted to keep the peace, buy oil from whoever, and keep signing deals. instead the conflict split the Middle East into camps, US versus Iran and its allies, and China inevitably drifts toward Iran's side because it can't stay in the middle while its diplomacy dissolves. so the whole mess in the Middle East benefits almost nobody and degrades most of the players, which over the long run against BRICS and China is precisely the outcome the US wants. regime change is always the first goal for neocons, but dumping a region into chaos and removing it as competition works too. the real rival in this war was never Iran, it was the growing BRICS bloc that was absorbing Saudi Arabia and the UAE. the war broke that up and dragged the Gulf states back toward Washington because there's no other option left. "If you can't become stronger, make them weaker" is what's playing out. was it deliberate? no idea. but BRICS came out substantially weakened, and that serves Trump's interest.

1mo

Not A Newt@not_a_newt

Follow

Trump chess match against blue sweaters

whether the chaos surrounding Iran was engineered on purpose is something i genuinely can't answer, but the scoreboard after the fact is hard to argue with: the US comes out ahead and BRICS takes the hit, and that lines up with Trump's interests either way. start with the Beijing agreement. China put its name on a deal between Iran and the Saudis meant to "promote international and regional peace and security," and for a while the Saudis were on good terms with basically everybody and printing money. that deal is gone. Iran and the Saudis are back to being enemies. then there's the membership question. Saudi Arabia got an invite to BRICS and even shows up in the concept note as a member, but they never confirmed it publicly, which happened because of US pressure. so the Saudis sit there as a "disputed member" where nobody can say for sure if they're in or out. once the war in Iran kicked off, Iran, itself a BRICS member, was in direct conflict with the Saudis, and most BRICS members sided with Iran. that basically torches any warm feelings inside the bloc for the time being. the Saudis got shoved back into the US ally column instead of staying a state that deals with everyone on its own terms. as for oil, the short supply and the chaos aren't costing the US much, particularly now that it controls Venezuela's oil. if anything the opposite: the supply chain runs through the US while everyone else eats the damage. corporations bank massive profits and global trading routes get redrawn. the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and of Saudi oil exports means less oil reaches China, since its main suppliers apart from Russia were Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and those are cut off. the US, as an oil producer plus Venezuela, only gains from shortages. sure, the regular person feels it at the pump, but geopolitics doesn't care about him. Chevron collects and China suffers, which is exactly what neocons want. China and India have to lean harder on Russian imports as the only partner they can count on, which means if Russia goes down, China is left with no oil partners at all. China is furious at everyone involved and watches a decade of diplomatic work come apart. it wanted to keep the peace, buy oil from whoever, and keep signing deals. instead the conflict split the Middle East into camps, US versus Iran and its allies, and China inevitably drifts toward Iran's side because it can't stay in the middle while its diplomacy dissolves. so the whole mess in the Middle East benefits almost nobody and degrades most of the players, which over the long run against BRICS and China is precisely the outcome the US wants. regime change is always the first goal for neocons, but dumping a region into chaos and removing it as competition works too. the real rival in this war was never Iran, it was the growing BRICS bloc that was absorbing Saudi Arabia and the UAE. the war broke that up and dragged the Gulf states back toward Washington because there's no other option left. "If you can't become stronger, make them weaker" is what's playing out. was it deliberate? no idea. but BRICS came out substantially weakened, and that serves Trump's interest.

1mo