Kelp Schmidt@kelpindigo_

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Brasileirão real vs expected balance

The gap between what the numbers expect and what actually happens in Brasileirão is wild when you line up Real Balance (Goals-Goals Conceded) against Expected Balance (xG-xGA) per match. Flamengo tops both lists, which tracks for the best real and expected balance in the competition. Palmeiras sits second in real balance but their xG balance is just average, so they're not overperforming the model. Internacional and Vasco are the interesting ones though, positive xG balance but negative real balance, meaning the stats love them while the results don't. how's your club doing in this mess?

1w

Kelp Schmidt@kelpindigo_

Follow

Brasileirão real vs expected balance

The gap between what the numbers expect and what actually happens in Brasileirão is wild when you line up Real Balance (Goals-Goals Conceded) against Expected Balance (xG-xGA) per match. Flamengo tops both lists, which tracks for the best real and expected balance in the competition. Palmeiras sits second in real balance but their xG balance is just average, so they're not overperforming the model. Internacional and Vasco are the interesting ones though, positive xG balance but negative real balance, meaning the stats love them while the results don't. how's your club doing in this mess?

1w