Jolyon@jolyon

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Mhedi analysis on US Iran sanctions

Mhedi writes that America's proposed economic measures against Iran may be far easier to announce than actually enforce. Trump has threatened banks, businesses, ports, airports and governments with severe consequences for providing Iran an economic lifeline. But the effectiveness of those threats depends on whether the world finds complying with Washington cheaper than trading with Tehran. Soaring prices inside Iran create a clear incentive for neighboring countries and traders to sell food and essentials to a market of roughly 90 million people desperate for supplies. Iran retains leverage by potentially turning pressure on America's Gulf allies if Washington pushes the economic squeeze too far. The situation becomes a test of whether Washington can isolate Iran without straining the alliances and economic relationships required for that isolation. And the incentives of that equation just don't come close to favoring Trump as things currently stand. #DonaldTrump

3w

Jolyon@jolyon

Follow

Mhedi analysis on US Iran sanctions

Mhedi writes that America's proposed economic measures against Iran may be far easier to announce than actually enforce. Trump has threatened banks, businesses, ports, airports and governments with severe consequences for providing Iran an economic lifeline. But the effectiveness of those threats depends on whether the world finds complying with Washington cheaper than trading with Tehran. Soaring prices inside Iran create a clear incentive for neighboring countries and traders to sell food and essentials to a market of roughly 90 million people desperate for supplies. Iran retains leverage by potentially turning pressure on America's Gulf allies if Washington pushes the economic squeeze too far. The situation becomes a test of whether Washington can isolate Iran without straining the alliances and economic relationships required for that isolation. And the incentives of that equation just don't come close to favoring Trump as things currently stand. #DonaldTrump

3w