@jolyonThe part of the Texas exit polls worth sitting with is how lopsided it got outside the white vote. White men went for the GOP by 23 points and white women by 13, per Axios and writer Samuel. Then it flips hard: Latino women broke for Democrats by 42, Black men by 77, and every other group combined by 10. That coalition carried the statewide races, with James Talarico beating Ken Paxton for Senate and Gina Hinojosa beating Greg Abbott for governor. Minority support clearly fed the Democratic wins, though the margins by themselves don't tell us exactly how much each group mattered, since turnout and population size are part of that math too. Texas spent a long time as a Republican stronghold, and the 2026 election reshaped the map. Without a repeat of this in 2028, I'm not sure how the GOP wins.

@jolyonThe part of the Texas exit polls worth sitting with is how lopsided it got outside the white vote. White men went for the GOP by 23 points and white women by 13, per Axios and writer Samuel. Then it flips hard: Latino women broke for Democrats by 42, Black men by 77, and every other group combined by 10. That coalition carried the statewide races, with James Talarico beating Ken Paxton for Senate and Gina Hinojosa beating Greg Abbott for governor. Minority support clearly fed the Democratic wins, though the margins by themselves don't tell us exactly how much each group mattered, since turnout and population size are part of that math too. Texas spent a long time as a Republican stronghold, and the 2026 election reshaped the map. Without a repeat of this in 2028, I'm not sure how the GOP wins.