@jolyon🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran strike is set for the day after the midterms, and three of the Republicans who'd have to pay for it might not survive Tuesday The races that decide who funds round two: -Maine, Sen. Susan Collins: chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee that sets the defense topline, voted against confirming Hegseth, and is tied with a Democrat whose website says no US tax dollars for Israel's military. Lose her and the Senate's top check-writer for the war is gone. -Virginia, Rep. Rob Wittman: Lockheed's top-funded candidate and next in line to lead House Armed Services for the GOP, facing a prosecutor running on prices and corruption. He's the one who'd push the munitions-replacement bills the war depends on. -California, Rep. Ken Calvert: the House's top defense appropriator, in a Republican-on-Republican fight after redistricting, backed by $900,000 from two Palantir executives. His subcommittee writes the actual checks. Why it matters for Iran: -The war has cost $47 billion, $29 billion of it on munitions still not replaced, with Patriot stocks down to roughly 39% -The Pentagon is already planning for $400 billion less than Trump's $1.5 trillion request, and Mitch McConnell, the one appropriator warning the war funding was unsustainable, retires in January -If Democrats take the House, Adam Smith gets the Armed Services gavel and Chris Murphy's "insane" strike plans get subpoena power So the order of events is locked: strikes can start Nov. 4 on Trump's authority alone, but the bill for replacing what gets fired lands in a Congress elected the day before. If Collins, Wittman and Calvert fall, the people who'd have rubber-stamped the next $50 billion are replaced by people who campaigned against it, and a three-day campaign becomes a three-month fight over who pays for the fourth day. Source: Breaking Defense, OpenSecrets, Politico, CENTCOM / Writer: Daniel

@jolyon🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran strike is set for the day after the midterms, and three of the Republicans who'd have to pay for it might not survive Tuesday The races that decide who funds round two: -Maine, Sen. Susan Collins: chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee that sets the defense topline, voted against confirming Hegseth, and is tied with a Democrat whose website says no US tax dollars for Israel's military. Lose her and the Senate's top check-writer for the war is gone. -Virginia, Rep. Rob Wittman: Lockheed's top-funded candidate and next in line to lead House Armed Services for the GOP, facing a prosecutor running on prices and corruption. He's the one who'd push the munitions-replacement bills the war depends on. -California, Rep. Ken Calvert: the House's top defense appropriator, in a Republican-on-Republican fight after redistricting, backed by $900,000 from two Palantir executives. His subcommittee writes the actual checks. Why it matters for Iran: -The war has cost $47 billion, $29 billion of it on munitions still not replaced, with Patriot stocks down to roughly 39% -The Pentagon is already planning for $400 billion less than Trump's $1.5 trillion request, and Mitch McConnell, the one appropriator warning the war funding was unsustainable, retires in January -If Democrats take the House, Adam Smith gets the Armed Services gavel and Chris Murphy's "insane" strike plans get subpoena power So the order of events is locked: strikes can start Nov. 4 on Trump's authority alone, but the bill for replacing what gets fired lands in a Congress elected the day before. If Collins, Wittman and Calvert fall, the people who'd have rubber-stamped the next $50 billion are replaced by people who campaigned against it, and a three-day campaign becomes a three-month fight over who pays for the fourth day. Source: Breaking Defense, OpenSecrets, Politico, CENTCOM / Writer: Daniel