@jolyonThe question left hanging is whether a phone call reaches Trump before the aircraft do. Everyone in this chain is dialing: Britain's leader on the line raising concerns, Iraq's prime minister reportedly briefed that a US attack lands within days, Baghdad told it's coming, and the people close to the decision treating it as settled. Tehran's reply is to stretch the target list. Two Iranian security officials told Reuters that lines serving military bases, covert ones included, would be struck in a manner built to stop repairs, and an official's quote is "There will be no more red lines." Iran also told Reuters it can reach the Gulf's internet cables without restriction. Reuters notes that less than 1% of international bandwidth passes through Hormuz, so the Gulf absorbs that damage first, and the oil pain is already here: Iran says two supertankers were hit today, the UAE closed beaches over a slick, and Washington insisted the same day that Gulf exports are above pre-war levels. Israel has opened its own front. Netanyahu shut Hebron after two soldiers were killed and ordered a full West Bank lockdown prepared, Hezbollah is showing signs of mobilizing, and Ron Lauder told Israelis they're "losing everything because of stupidity."

@jolyonThe question left hanging is whether a phone call reaches Trump before the aircraft do. Everyone in this chain is dialing: Britain's leader on the line raising concerns, Iraq's prime minister reportedly briefed that a US attack lands within days, Baghdad told it's coming, and the people close to the decision treating it as settled. Tehran's reply is to stretch the target list. Two Iranian security officials told Reuters that lines serving military bases, covert ones included, would be struck in a manner built to stop repairs, and an official's quote is "There will be no more red lines." Iran also told Reuters it can reach the Gulf's internet cables without restriction. Reuters notes that less than 1% of international bandwidth passes through Hormuz, so the Gulf absorbs that damage first, and the oil pain is already here: Iran says two supertankers were hit today, the UAE closed beaches over a slick, and Washington insisted the same day that Gulf exports are above pre-war levels. Israel has opened its own front. Netanyahu shut Hebron after two soldiers were killed and ordered a full West Bank lockdown prepared, Hezbollah is showing signs of mobilizing, and Ron Lauder told Israelis they're "losing everything because of stupidity."