@jolyonAmericans have been telling pollsters this feels like a recession for a full year, and oil demand is now falling at a pace seen only three times in sixty years. Jeff Snider brought one chart to show how the numbers are catching up to the mood. The University of Michigan asks people whether they expect unemployment to rise, and that line has sat at the bottom of every past recession for a year now, since before the war began. The New York Fed's version just hit its worst reading since 2020. The IEA expects oil demand to drop 2.5 million barrels a day this year, and Americans are already using three to four percent less fuel than last year. Kroger says fewer shoppers, spending less. Iran understands this better than anyone, which is why the Houthis choked the second strait once the world learned to route around the first: "the IRGC is in a war of survival". Both sides are in it to the end. Neither blinks. Gas stays near $5 through Christmas even if the war stopped tonight.

@jolyonAmericans have been telling pollsters this feels like a recession for a full year, and oil demand is now falling at a pace seen only three times in sixty years. Jeff Snider brought one chart to show how the numbers are catching up to the mood. The University of Michigan asks people whether they expect unemployment to rise, and that line has sat at the bottom of every past recession for a year now, since before the war began. The New York Fed's version just hit its worst reading since 2020. The IEA expects oil demand to drop 2.5 million barrels a day this year, and Americans are already using three to four percent less fuel than last year. Kroger says fewer shoppers, spending less. Iran understands this better than anyone, which is why the Houthis choked the second strait once the world learned to route around the first: "the IRGC is in a war of survival". Both sides are in it to the end. Neither blinks. Gas stays near $5 through Christmas even if the war stopped tonight.