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    Huda Thomas
    Huda Thomas@huda.thomas

    Google did not lose the AI race. It quit on purpose. The company is positioned to make more money than every competitor still running in that lane. In a single afternoon, four of the most cited living AI researchers walked out. Jeff Dean left after 27 years building the systems Google runs on. Sanjay Ghemawat, his longtime partner, departed. Oriol Vinyals, a Gemini co-lead, exited. Quoc Le, a Google Brain co-founder, also left. On that same day, Demis Hassabis stepped back from running DeepMind. He co-founded the lab, won a Nobel Prize for AlphaFold, and served as the face of Google AI for a decade. The stock dropped 5% within hours. Analysts labeled it a brain drain. Headlines declared it the day Google fell behind. That narrative is wrong because the underlying numbers tell a different story. Google is no longer trying to win the frontier model race. It identified where the profit lies and moved toward it. Gemini generated about $12 billion in annual revenue last quarter. That is the total payoff from competing head to head with OpenAI and Anthropic. Compare that to the infrastructure projections. By the end of 2027, Google Cloud is projected to generate over $73 billion selling AI infrastructure to other companies. It is also projected to make another $120 billion selling its TPU chips. That amounts to roughly $200 billion in external sales at high margins, versus a $12 billion model business. Google recognized that the frontier race is expensive while selling the shovels is profitable. The customers buying those shovels include Google’s rivals. Over 20% of Google’s TPU shipments for 2026 and 2027 are going to Anthropic. This is one of the two labs supposedly beating Gemini. Google now earns revenue every time Anthropic trains a model designed to crush Google’s own product. The strategy is to cede the frontier, own the layer beneath it, and collect a toll from everyone racing on top. The departing researchers are a symptom of a company that already decided models are not where it wins. Jeff Dean stated this explicitly. He told the New York Times that leaving a public company allows him to make decisions 'not necessarily in the company's purist financial interests.' Viewed from Google’s perspective, the people who wanted to chase science left because the company is now optimizing for financial interest. Gemini 3.5 Pro is running months behind, with staff citing low morale. DeepMind’s communications, legal, and marketing teams are being folded into Google proper. A former manager told the Guardian that 'the era of DeepMind as an independent lab is over.' None of this reads as failure once the strategy is visible. Yet Wall Street is pricing this as a loss. The parallel that should concern frontier labs involves open weight models compressing inference prices. Being the best model stops being a viable business. It becomes like semiconductor fabrication: strategically vital but financially brutal. It is a race you can win and still lose money operating. Google is the first giant to admit this. The company that invented the transformer handed the frontier to OpenAI and Anthropic. It positioned itself to get paid on every model both ship. Those labs will burn billions to stay one benchmark ahead. Google will cash in hundreds of billions from it. The model business is a race where everyone loses. Apple understood this from the start and never joined. Google understands it now and has left it to OpenAI and Anthropic. The question remains: who will go bankrupt first? #JeffDean #DemisHassabis

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