Ufmg mapped out the Brasileirão champion probabilities and the spread is stark. flamengo holds a 76.8% chance while palmeiras sits at 21.3%. the rest of the field collapses fast: athletico paranaense has 1.1%, fluminense 0.56%, cruzeiro 0.14%, bahia 0.089%, atlético mineiro 0.003%, and santos 0.001%. every other team ends up with exactly 0% probability